Sunday, November 14, 2010

On Women, Marriage and White-Knights

I frequent more than a few forums where the topic of male/female relationships come up. Invariably the tone of some male commentators is very negative towards the modern woman. Also, without fail comes along some man to rise to the defense of women. In one such exchange our erstwhile defender made a mental diagnosis of the misogynist and commented that if he were to act that way around a group of men who appreciated women he would be physically beaten.

Some of the extremely vocal hostility to women can become tiresome but the gamma male routine isn't much more attractive than hyper-misogyny. Why in the world would any man care to assault another man because he speaks ill of women or acts like an ass (I will assume it is not directed at a particular woman at the time)? That type of white-knight stuff is crap. And, I would argue more likely to lead to the white-knight getting pummeled (than successfully living out his heroic fantasy) when intervening in a situation that is a) none of his business and b) being committed by someone much more comfortable with violence than him.

On the whole, women and men are neither better or worse, just different. Better and worse might appear in a fashion depending on the situation/need. One can view trends with a large enough sample. Women do seem to be more antithetical to liberty, but most men have no concern over it either and certainly gave the house away without needing the help of the other sex. Here is why I am a big fan of free association. Hire who you want... see who you want... believe how you want... leave me alone.

But what of the male/female dynamic in relationship to marriage and commitment? For both sexes it is trouble. There is lesser interest in getting married for younger men these days. You can google marriage strike and see numbers on it.

Women give terrible advice to younger women on this topic. 'You can wait... why get married early'. Popular meme... not terribly true from the male point of view (at least the males most open to marriage). Looks are important and a younger woman has the edge there frequently. While female earning and titles have increased in popularity for men (they like the dual income) you are still more likely to find a man who will date 'down' and be fine than you will a woman who wants to date on par or up. There is no doubt a decline in interest for marriage among men. If a woman is wanting a man of a certain traditional value mindset then he is likely looking to settle earlier rather than later. In that case the best ones will go early. Women do face a real biological clock issue. Fertility declines much earlier than is generally recognized. Putting off family can wind up backfiring. With marriage it is hard to say what the rules are anymore. This idea that somehow as you age you become much better does not ring true. The older you are the more established you are. There is good in that perhaps but you also can become less flexible and less willing to adapt and grow with someone than if you are both starting out before you THINK you have it all figured out. I am less interested in marriage now than I was at a young age.

The gamma males, white-knighters and older generations of men seem to resort to a bit of shaming of younger men. Not uncommon in my experience is the claim that they know some (usually in her 30's) wonderful woman that would have been a prize catch in their day. I answer thusly.




From a woman's point of view. Also bemoaning the fact that her 30ish brother's cannot find a decent woman. Finding quality people is not an easy task.

I am not being the least bit concerned about shaming from the other sex or from men 2 generations removed. The gamma males and white knighters are amusing. Women are not to be worshiped or placed on pedestals... they are people and should be evaluated thoroughly if one is considering marriage. Everyone acts in their own interest as they perceive it. It can be beneficial to study what a large portion of the other side perceives as its interest and risks as it relates to what you want. If this leads to one deciding marriage is not for them so be it.

Why are people surprised or dismayed when a man lays out a point of view that is negative to women and somehow doesn't comment on how awful men are too. Most men do not date men... they date women. They therefore are more concerned with how women behave. The burden of ruling out the scum of men is on the females. If they reward scum behavior then it perpetuates it. If they refrain from having scum's children etc then it punishes scum behavior.

The men who have dropped out of marriage in this day and age are not suddenly less interested in women than they were before. It is simply that most of the benefits of marriage can be gained outside of it while taking on fewer risks. This does punish more traditional women, but there you go.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

The People Look for an Ox to Gore

A commentator has finally noticed and begun to make a little noise about a particular segment of the public sector's work force.

"But it's also noteworthy that one of the most generous defined-benefits public-employee pension plans in the country isn't being mentioned in this discussion. There is a branch of the federal government that lets you retire after 20 years on the job, even if you're under age 40, and guarantees immediate benefits of 50% of your final salary for the rest of your life. That branch is the military. If you joined the army at age 18, and retired in 2011 at age 38 as a $55,000-a-year sergeant (pay grade E-8) after an unexceptional career, you would be entitled to $26,000 per year for the rest of your life, plus cost-of-living adjustments. The average 40-ish retiring sergeant would put the taxpayers on the hook for over $1m in lifetime retirement pay. That's not counting a lifetime of free medical care from the VA. And the military doesn't have a pension fund; the Pentagon budget's $18 billion in retiree pay this year will be paid directly by taxpayers."


This post is not really designed to advocate a position on this but to simply reflect a fiscal reality combined with the point of view of those not in the service. I'm sure many of the state workers around the nation feel that they are owed their pensions, but the money is not there and the taxpayers are beginning to revolt. I'm sure that the private sector employees who have been removed from the pension plans they had through bankruptcy and the actions of the PBCG think they were owed what was contracted but they didn't get it either. I'm sure the retirees who thought they signed on for medical care for life and then were thrown out of the military hospitals in the mid 90's thought they were owed and yet they were shown the door. I'm sure the people who collect off of SS and Medicare think they are owed... but the programs are bankrupt. This nation has a history of bailing on such things. George Washington apologized to his officer corp for the betrayal of the congress after the Revolutionary War. MacArthur cleared out the veterans on orders from Hoover. On and on...

While the nation may love its military, I would not expect the American people who are struggling themselves to have a tremendous concern for the ability of a segment of the population to retire at 38 years old with millions in pensions. I would not expect them to think that granny should take cuts in medicare and SS so that the military guy can get his retirement. I don't know what will happen, but I'm fairly certain there will be a substantial change in the military retirement system... at least as it was presented to those who signed up over the years.

Do the tax payers owe the military? No. Like any other life it was chosen by the people who entered into it. While it is certainly unfair perhaps that people signed up with one set of information from what later on came to be recognized, there is a burden on those in a system to observe the exterior things that can effect it. Nobody is immune to reality. There is nothing in my mind more sacred about what they do than anyone else who takes a role in civilizations preservation. Guy who keeps the water system going... provides electricity... gets the food to the store... they provide value too. Should the contract be honored? Sure. But bankruptcy relieves us all of our burdens... the nation will declare it too.

Friday, November 05, 2010

Fighting for Freedom

How many today would fight for ‘freedom’ or ‘liberty’. The question certainly is appropriate as many constantly claim we have less freedom than ever before (we will leave for further investigation and thought that opinion). It certainly is hard to argue that the burden of government was greater under King George than under our current system. While there is perhaps anger taking people to the polls, there is not a widespread social disruption or anything resembling an active revolutionary movement. Is that an indictment of today’s citizen? Shouldn’t they be risking it all for ‘liberty’?

If we look back to the inhabitants of the colonies in 1775-1776, most did not in that time either. The big losers were the big names. Though some of the big names became the big winners. Supporting independence and liberty was one thing. Fighting for it another.

The population in 1775 was ~2.5M (have seen higher figures). Probably safe to assume 1.25M of that was male and probably 60% of fighting age. Yet, this domestic population rarely stood and fought in any significant fashion against the 50K British troops and their 30K Hessian mercenaries. This foreign population was forced to fight over the entire east coast. Still we struggled.

Washington was not kind to deserters. He was not in general having to turn away recruits. America had difficulties fielding armies. We needed, or at least greatly benefited, from the involvement of France and Spain on our side.

People like to be on the side of winners, but few will fight... for independence... freedom... anything.

All of this was in the time of the enlightenment and revolutions were beginning to spread. Did the cause of ‘liberty’ and freedom not resonate?

Yes... at least at the intellectual level of society. While I believe that plenty of people did read or were capable of reading more complex material than now, I am not terribly certain that the average joe has ever had much consideration for the thoughts of the esoteric. People had to work pretty hard across the board just to eat. Freedom is a word that means different things to different people. Being able to demagogue a crowd is far different than that crowd taking up arms and slogging through the mud for years in a war.

Freedom for some probably meant no king... to others it simply meant freedom to have the British pay for our Indian issues as opposed to us. Freedom for others is more along the lines of FDR's list of freedoms than the Founders.

My bottom line is that I do not think the fact that 95% of people now would not have fought then is any great indictment. Most people rarely fight willingly for any cause. Most people care about food, women, entertainment and beer. As long as you don't interfere too much with those they will tolerate a great deal.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

'Porno' Scanners


In the discussion that surrounds the airport backscatter systems (more emotionally known as 'porno scanners') the risk of radiation is frequently combined into the list of why these devices are so awful. Most of those commenting on this are ignorant of what they speak and likely do not seek true education in it. One location I read from that had been linked off of LRC (I believe the link was to dontscanme or something similar) a report was linked detailing the risk from cataracts that ionizing radiation can pose. Linking cataracts to backscatter machines either reveals profound ignorance or willful disingenuousness.

Cataracts are a deterministic effect from radiation. Even the linked report was dealing with cataract formation from exposure to individuals working in an occupational capacity in a cardiac cath lab. Cardiac cath lab workers are among the highest receivers of occupational exposure and even there cataracts are not common. The regulations (awful that they exist I know), industry standards and general ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principles minimize stochastic effects from radiation (cancer) and have pretty much eliminated deterministic effects. Further, the article is referring to a study from Malaysia. It is hard to speak about what their practices are. Practices matter a great deal in this area. To pass on the information on cataracts… it takes a minimum of 500,000 uSv to cause cataracts if the exposure is given in a short time… if the time frame is longer than the required value is much greater.

http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q5208.html

So, what is the radiation risk from these scanners. There is published data on this in NCRP Commentary No. 16 “Screening of Humans for Security Purposes Using Ionizing Radiation Scanning Systems”. The effective doses from the common field system is 0.03 uSv per scan for the anterior view and 0.02 uSv per scan from the posterior view. I think we can agree that 0.03 + 0.02 is < 0.1 uSv which is what I will use as the value from here on. First let us compare the value of 0.1 uSv to the exposure you would receive from the actual flight.

http://www.hps.org/publicinformation/ate/q444.html

This value ranges at our latitudes from 0.3 uSv/hr to 0.4 uSv/hr depending on the solar cycle. So, if you are on a two to three hour flight from Atlanta to San Antonio you would expect an exposure of between .6 – .8 uSv. So, the exposure from the backscatter system is a small component of the overall trips exposure.

Let us now compare it to principles discussed in NCRP Commentary 16. We have the concept of annual Negligible Individual Dose (NID). The NID is 0.01 mSv (which is 10 uSv). It would take 100 scans from the backscatter device to reach the NID. It would take 2500 scans to reach a particular administrative control level.
The average American receives 6.2 mSv (6,200 uSv) of radiation effective dose per year from all sources (natural, medicine etc). 3 mSv of that comes from inescapable natural radiation (no medical exposure). This data can be found in NCRP Report No. 160.

But again… what about risk? There is no really good data on such minute amounts of radiation. For regulatory purposes (oh those things again) the linear-non threshold theory applies. From that we assume no radiation exposure is good. But the data for that is extrapolation from atomic bomb survivors who received well in excess of 2,000,000 uSv in a single blast. There are papers out there studying hormesis (the concept that low levels of exposure are beneficial to humans). So while there is a regulatory concept it is not related that much to scientific evidence.

The best formula for lifetime risk of cancer to radiation exposure is for the non-occupational population 5% per Sv (1,000,000 uSv) increase in the risk of cancer. At 0.1 uSv per scan you would have a lot of frequent flyer miles to get there.

Growing radiation exposure is an interesting subject. But the bang for the buck (yeah… I went with Pareto) is not in backscatter machines but is in medicine (particularly CT). Given the number of unnecessary medical images that people demand or allow themselves to be subjected to chasing after backscatter machines on the issue of radiation demonstrates a lack of knowledge in the field and the underlying science.

There are many good reasons not to implement and deploy these devices. Radiation exposure is probably the weakest of these and certainly the most poorly understood by the people making the case.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Picking the Wrong Examples


I quite frequently read fairly absurd things on Lewrockwell.com. This is one of the more obvious examples.

Once in a great while, there is hope for the human race. At a sporting event, the security guards used excessive force on an overzealous fan who went onto the playing field. After a short while, many fans in the stadium not only recognized the outrageousness of the guards’ abuse, they decided to come to the rescue of the fan.




I replied thus:

While I believe the force was excessive, I fail to see what great hope there is.

Unless you possess more information that provided in the video. Was the stadium private property? Were the guards hired by the lawful property owner to defend their property and assure the safety of the players? Even if you want to cheer the fan's defending someone against excessive force (whether you are recognizing excessive private force or you believe this to be unjust government force) how can you justify the fans then trespassing past the point of the rescue and then themselves assaulting someone.

You see hope. I see a vast majority of people who just wanted to run wild. Only a few probably took true initiative on the initial situation. You see an overzealous fan. I see an unlawful trespasser on private property. The only part it would seem we agree on is that the nightstick use was unnecessary.

Too many on Lewrockwell.com pick marginal cases to demonstrate liberty and the principles of freedom. It demeans both.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

UFC 115

UFC 115 is in the bag and I would have to give the show a solid thumbs up. More of the fighters were engaged in action with fewer periods of simply laying on the opponent (though there was some of that in the Rothwell vs Yvel fight.

Danzig got jobbed. Incredibly poor ref stoppage. Danzig did allow himself to get into that situation, but it still did not reflect a just ending to the fight.

MacDonald vs Condit provided an interesting dilemma. If the ref was to allow the fight to continue to the end then MacDonald likely takes it on the scorecards. Stopping the fight at that point (seconds left in the 3rd) awarded a TKO to Condit. Here we have a problem with scoring in MMA. With only 3 rounds and an unlikelihood of awarding a 10-8 round, squeeking out a round awards as many points as dominating a round. If the fight had been stopped in the 2nd at the same point I doubt nearly so many in the audience would have complained. How do you score these things? While a fight can turn on a dime, projecting the momentum of the fight as it was happening in the 3rd, does anyone think MacDonald would have survived a 4th round? Controversial stoppage, but I believe it was a good one. The right person won.

Rothwell vs Yvel has a great first round and some moments in the second. Both of these individuals need to step up their conditioning though. This was almost as bad as watching TUF heavyweight season. Rogan called it correctly, the 3rd round had bowling shoe tendencies. How Yvel has not upped his ground game at this point in his career is mind boggling. It continues to cost him fights that he might otherwise win. It cost him the fight against Barnett and it cost him this one. He seemingly can be taken down by simply blowing hard on him.

Kampmann vs Thiago demonstrated total domination by Kampmann. How he lost to Daley is beyond me.

Cro Cop vs Barry was interesting and entertaining. Cro Cop in his last few fights seemed to have his will broken fairly easily. If the guy didn't run away or collapse under a kick then Cro Cop would allow himself to be pushed back and mauled. In the first round of this fight he went down twice and yet battled back. By the 2nd he was primarily coming forward and in the 3rd he totally took over as Barry was spent. He showed much more versatility in his offense. I still do not think he is a contender, but he saved his job and will certainly get another fight. Barry really needs to work on his conditioning. It is getting embarrassing to hear about how hard someone's camp was and then they gas out at 7 minutes of fighting. Still, it was a fun fight to watch.

Liddell vs Franklin entertained. Two popular fighters who unlike the Evans vs Jackson main event engaged with great frequency. Liddell simply has no chin left. It isn't that he is being hit more now; he simply cannot take even a small shot to the chin anymore. Hard to say where Franklin winds up after this. His big wins against W. Silva and Liddell came after both were shells of their former selves. He lost to Machida, Belfort, Henderson and A. Silva. Given that Machida is at 205 and A. Silva is probably heading to 205 it is hard to say where Franklin fits in. Perhaps he will be used in more of an attraction role. Much like this Liddell fight, put him against a name to generate PPV buys.

Overall this card rates highly with me in terms of delivering. Refs had a tough night though.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

God Doesn't Fret the IRS

In which I have a theological disagreement with VD and the ilk.

Friday, June 04, 2010

Mailvox: give to Caesar

JB wonders when it applies:
Not sure if you've run into this, but I've noticed a pattern when debating a liberal (Christian or not) about taxes and big government. When they get to the point where they have lost the argument, they throw a grenade with the statement, "Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's".

Now, I'm not one to take the words of Christ lightly. It is true, Jesus did not go out of His way to incite rebellion against Rome, and seemed to endorse the concept of taxation with that statement. However, something doesn't sit right with the liberal's logic when they resort to that statement.

I wonder if you or the Ilk have a solid response to the Render Unto Caesar argument.
I usually run into this with regards to taxes. My response is always the same as the response that preceded the advice. "Show me the coin used for paying the tax. Whose portrait is this? And whose inscription?" In other words, show me Caesar! So, while you can reasonably use this verse to justify writing a check to assorted dead men or the Federal Reserve, it is a poor argument in support of state or Federal taxation.

Now, it is important to note that it is not any wiser to refuse to pay the tax money demanded by the IRS than it is to refuse to pay the protection money demanded by the Mafia. But it does mean that the Biblical justification doesn't apply.

As for government, the liberal Christian's logic breaks down because what applies to a divine Emperor manifestly does not apply to a democracy, not even a constitutional republic in which the democracy is strictly limited. Whereas the imperial subject owes the Emperor nothing but obedience, the citizen of the republic has a duty to ensure that his duly elected government acts legitimately according to the bounds of the republic's constitution.

What gave Caesar legitimacy? The military supremacy of Rome. Many of the people who fell under Rome's sphere of influence did so without the consent of the people. So what is the logic of saying that it matters one wit what the people of this nation think about taxation? The Republic has mostly been dismantled and the people who hold to the idea of the Constitution are as occupied as certain Jews believed their nation to be. Power changes the status quo. If Paul was not advising people to concern themselves with their state in the world e.g. slavery, why would we think there was a significant concern about taxation for the Christian.

Christians spend a great deal of energy fretting about the world which obviously has been given over to Satan. The kingdoms of the world belong to Satan regardless of the form of government. 5%, 10% or 100% of what the principalities and powers of this world designate is irrelevant to the soul of a Christian.

Christians are citizens of the Kingdom... the fact we devote so much emotional energy to being Citizens of nations/states/ideologies robs us of spiritual peace.

Now obviously we exist in the world and within the confines of our systems we have as much right to attempt to influence and act as anyone, but this life is passing and our focus should not be there. Citizenship has its uses. Paul used his Roman citizenship. American citizenship might be useful in ministry... but ultimately it is a tool not an end.

Phil. 3:20 For our citizenship is in heaven, from which also we eagerly wait for a Savior, the Lord Jesus Christ;

Col. 3:1-3 If then you have been raised up with Christ, keep seeking the things above, where Christ is, seated at the right hand of God. Set your mind on the things above, not on the things that are on earth. For you have died and your life is hidden with Christ in God.

Ephesians 2:11/Therefore, remember that formerly you who are Gentiles by birth and called "uncircumcised" by those who call themselves "the circumcision" (that done in the body by the hands of men)— 12remember that at that time you were separate from Christ, excluded from citizenship in Israel and foreigners to the covenants of the promise, without hope and without God in the world. 13But now in Christ Jesus you who once were far away have been brought near through the blood of Christ. 19Consequently, you are no longer foreigners and aliens, but fellow citizens with God's people and members of God's household, 20built on the foundation of the apostles and prophets, with Christ Jesus himself as the chief cornerstone. 21In him the whole building is joined together and rises to become a holy temple in the Lord. 22And in him you too are being built together to become a dwelling in which God lives by his Spirit.
Fighting Cans

One of the most frequent criticisms of Fedor Emelianenko is that since 2005 he has only fought 'cans'. Is this just criticism? How does he stack up against other heavyweight fighters?

The current top 10 are as follows:

HEAVYWEIGHT DIVISION (over 205 pounds)

#1 Heavyweight Fighter in the World: Fedor Emelianenko

2. Brock Lesnar

3. Shane Carwin

4. Cain Velasquez

5. Junior Dos Santos

6. Alistair Overeem

7. Frank Mir

8. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

9. Fabricio Werdum

10. Brett Rogers

MMAWeekly World MMA Rankings last updated on June 2, 2010

On this list Fedor has defeated 2 of the top 10 and is scheduled to fight a 3rd.

Overeem, Lesnar and Mir both have wins over 1 person on this list. Lesnar is scheduled to fight another one on the list.

So, based on the current top 10 Fedor has fought and defeated the most at this point and time. If you want to discount his win over Nogueira (x2) then you have to argue that Nogueira is better now than he was back in Pride.

The 2 fights prior to Rodgers for Fedor were against Sylvia and Arvloski. Arvloski was ranked 3rd at the time of the fight and Sylvia 5. They have since dropped out due to defeats by Fedor and others. The fight against Couture was not made, but now that he is out of the top 10 wouldn't he also be considered a can? Fedor was also scheduled to fight Barnett who was ranked 2nd in the world at the time. The fight fell through due to steroids. So... the way Fedors last couple of fights shaped up.

vs # 5, vs #3, scheduled against #2, vs #8, vs #9 + prior victories over the current # 8.

Can't win... if you beat them they are cans. If you don't fight someone then you are a can...

You can look at some historical rankings.

Jan - 2008

1 Fedor Emelianenko
2 Randy Couture
3 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
4 Fabricio Werdum
5 Cheick Kongo
6 Tim Sylvia
7 Gabriel Gonzaga
8 Mirko Filipovic
9 Andrei Arlovski
10 Sergei Kharitonov

Fought most of those.

Dec - 08

1 Fedor Emelianenko
2 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3 Brock Lesnar
4 Andrei Arlovski
5 - Randy Couture
6 - Josh Barnett
7 - Junior dos Santos
8 - Gabriel Gonzaga
9 - Tim Sylvia
10 Fabricio Werdum

Mostly the same group.

June - 09

1 Fedor Emelianenko
2 Frank Mir
3 Brock Lesnar
4 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
5 Josh Barnett
6 Randy Couture
7 Gegard Mousasi
8 Brett Rogers
9 Junior dos Santos
10 Cheick Kongo

Dec - 09

1 Fedor Emelianenko
2 Brock Lesnar
3 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
4 Frank Mir
5 Junior dos Santos
6 Josh Barnett
7 Brett Rogers
8 Cain Velasquez
9 Fabricio Werdum
10 Shane Carwin

So... who was he supposed to fight before just these past few months where you have the UFC heavyweights making an appearance? They made names beating people he had defeated.

Can the current crop of heavyweights generate a fight that defeats him? Sure. But he has fought 'competition' since 2005. He does not fight frequently and he has not fought unknown prospects... unless you consider Rodgers in that manner.